5 predictions Geo for 2010 and 5 things that won’t happen

Here are 5 predictions for Twenty Ten.

1. The shapefile dies: SpatiaLite + ESRI’s File Geodatabase API finally put a dagger in the shapefile.
2. GIS on iPhone/iSlate (Apple Tablet) and Android/Chrome OS: With Apple and Google owning the mobile space, we’ll see more proprietary and open source projects being ported to these platforms. Microsoft Tablet PCs and Windows Mobile/CE begin to die off.
3. 64-bit: There will be some holdouts (cough ESRI), but most of us will be running native 64-bit code on our desktops and servers. Now to just get more RAM in this laptop.
4. Mobile: If you aren’t running on the iPhone/Android/Blackberry you aren’t relevant. Web mapping apps become mobile browser aware. Those that aren’t were probably irrelevant anyway.
5. Google: Google’s APIs continue to push the envelope and they continue to be the standard for everyone mapping on the interweb. Google is able to throw so much money and manpower at “problems” and their solutions are coming faster than anyone else can match.

Here are 5 things that won’t happen:

1. Augmented Reality: Much like the Nintendo Virtual Boy, it sounds great until you try and use it.
2. OpenStreetMap Dominates: Between Google’s quick improving of their database and continued licensing issues OSM plateaus. Companies will continue to try and figure out how to monetize OSM, but fail.
3. ESRI + Microsoft: This was on the top 10 lists for many people in 2009, but I don’t think we’ll be seeing deeper integration. ESRI will continue to support multiple platforms (Google, OSM, Microsoft, “other”) and not become a Microsoft shop. As Google continues to erode away at SharePoint and Bing Maps, ESRI will make sure that they don’t get caught in Microsoft’s blind spot.
4. Geolocation other than Twitter, Apple and Google (TAG): Foursquare, Brightkite, and others will fade as TAG rolls out new APIs and ensure their mobile devices are tagging everything you do.
5. MySQL falls apart: Despite the dire predictions of Oracle or Monty destroying the project, too many people have too much invested in the project to let it fail. MySQL will be fine and LAMP will continue to power Badgers.

Hey, don’t worry… It’s gonna be a bright, sun-shiny day!